Alright, let’s break down what’s going on with this year’s U.S. presidential election in seven key states. These states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — could make or break the race for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Instead of diving into every statistic, let’s look at a few counties in each state where small shifts could have big consequences.
Arizona: Maricopa County
If you’ve heard of Phoenix, then you’ve got the right area. Maricopa County is Arizona’s political powerhouse since about 60% of the state’s vote comes from here. Back in 2020, Biden narrowly won Maricopa by about 2 points, a flip from Trump’s win in 2016. With its mix of city dwellers and suburban voters, this is the county to watch if you want a hint of where Arizona might go.
Georgia: Cobb County and Baldwin County
Cobb County is a big one, just outside Atlanta. Biden won it by a solid 14 points in 2020, which was a huge jump from Hillary Clinton’s slim 2-point win in 2016. If the Democrats can hold onto Cobb, it could be a great indicator of whether Georgia stays blue.
Then there’s Baldwin County, smaller and further south, but crucial because of its significant Black voter turnout. Around 40% of voters here are Black, making Baldwin a gauge of enthusiasm in a key demographic. Biden’s margin here was slimmer in 2020 than Clinton’s in 2016, so if he or Harris can widen the lead, it might signal strong support statewide.
Michigan: Wayne County
Welcome to Detroit’s Wayne County! With its population of 1.7 million, about 40% of whom are Black, Wayne is Michigan’s most crucial county for Democrats. Biden won it handily in 2020 with over 68% of the vote, giving him a strong boost statewide. If you’re looking for a clear sign of Michigan’s lean, keep an eye on Wayne.
Nevada: Washoe County
Nevada’s not all glitzy Las Vegas! In the northwest, you have Washoe County, around Reno, which has been swinging more Democratic recently. Biden took it by about 4 points in 2020, a slight but solid shift. It’s less diverse than Vegas, but its movement to the left could tip Nevada in a close race.
North Carolina: Wake County
Think Raleigh and the Research Triangle, and you’ve got Wake County, a growing area that’s helped Democrats with voter turnout. Biden won here with 65% of the vote in 2020, although it wasn’t quite enough to overcome Trump statewide. If Harris or Biden can build on that success, it might be the boost they need in North Carolina.
Pennsylvania: Erie County, Bucks County, and Cumberland County
Erie County, up in northwest Pennsylvania, has a reputation for picking winners. It went for Biden in 2020 by a razor-thin 1-point margin after going for Trump by 2 points in 2016. Watching Erie could give you an early clue about which way Pennsylvania swings.
Next up, Bucks County near Philadelphia has a large working-class population. Trump’s been strong with these voters in the past, but Biden managed a 4-point win in 2020. If Bucks starts to lean red again, it could spell trouble for Democrats.
Lastly, Cumberland County, near Harrisburg, has been a Trump stronghold. But with a growing base of white-collar workers, Democrats have a shot at chipping away his margin here. Trump took it by 11 points in 2020, but even a small shift in Cumberland could matter.
Wisconsin: Waukesha County
Last but definitely not least, there’s Waukesha County near Milwaukee. This is one of Trump’s most loyal bases — he’s won by over 20 points here twice. If he can keep Waukesha voters energized, it could help Republicans claw back Wisconsin. Otherwise, the state might slip further left.
So there you have it! These are the counties where subtle changes can swing big results. Whether you’re tuning in on election night or just want to understand what all the fuss is about, these spots will give you a snapshot of the race in real-time.